A Bottom, but THE bottom?

Another bottom, but THE bottom?

Another V bottom in the books.  The market dropped 5% the week ending June 17th, followed by this week a surge of near 7% for the $QQQ.  Friday June 17th was “the tell” in hind-site with oil dropping to $110 from its peak $122.  Did just that wee-bit of relief really result in such a dramatic market reversal (peak inflation)?  Ask the consumer who is still paying $5 per gallon at the gas station or the restaurant that still can’t find workers regardless of the wage.  Nothing has changed.  But perhaps the narrative of “look thru” has taken hold?  This is something we have discussed ad nauseum the past couple of weeks.  Let’s revisit below.  From a performance perspective, unfortunately, while we were fully invested at the lows, our stock selection for a bounce was mediocre at best.  All told, we are down 3% in 2022 which puts us in a “clear head” position.  Being in a massive hole, many investors tend to hope & pray and deny the fundamentals.  Having a clear head is key, especially in a bear market.  We are agnostic to what happens next and willing to change our view depending on how the cards come out of the deck.  Let’s review.