Analysis is Dead---$TSM

And that's ok?

Many of you who read my substack remember when I pointed out TSM as a long AI play before it doubled. It did not move for a few weeks or more and then suddenly the world woke up to the “narrative”. At the time, there was some thought that the number of wafers NVDA was using was relatively small compared to the overall total and most of the benefit was to NVDA with huge ASPs it was charging. This was true and remains true. However, Apple’s business (25% of sales) turned from a drag to a slow growth adder while AVGO, MRVL, AMD also added wafer starts. In any case, today I want to discuss how the market is still not caring to analyze (this time to the negative detriment perhaps), but rather focus on headlines and stock action.

TSM reported June monthly sales last night. They were up 32.9% year over year for the June 2024 month versus June 2023. Spectacular, right?! Just keep buying AI semis baby! Maybe, maybe not!