ATEX: The Spectrum Small Cap that Could & Should
I will preface this update by saying ATEX has been my biggest dog this year for sure. Having said that, the absurdity of where the stock is trading I think is worth giving an update on the facts. This reminds me quite a bit of STRP and its spectrum sale which ultimately was a 10 bagger that was ignored, until it wasn’t. Will ATEX be that? Hard to say but here are the facts:
ATEX: One of the Clearest Spectrum Mispricings Left in Public Markets
Every so often, public markets create a price that has very little relationship to the underlying asset value. ATEX is one of those cases — a company with a meaningful balance sheet, validated demand from utilities, and a scarce low-band spectrum asset that is being valued at distressed levels.
Below is the full scoop:
1. Balance Sheet Floors the Stock
ATEX today has:
~$40M in cash
~$180M of contracted, scheduled future payments
~$50M in federal NOLs
~$365M market cap
After backing out cash + receivables, the entire spectrum portfolio is being valued at well under $100M.
That is the starting point for this disconnect.
2. Utility Demand Was Validated: ~$500M Sold Out in the Accelerated Program
ATEX ran an “Accelerated Program” aimed at utilities.
Per the company’s own disclosures, they:
allocated roughly $500M of spectrum
had full demand across available regions
entered advanced negotiations with multiple utilities
This is not speculative interest — it was a structured sales program with committed allocation.
Why is it slow to close?
Because utility deployments involve:
equipment procurement
integration and compatibility testing
tower and network planning
multi-year rollout budgets
These are long-cycle infrastructure decisions, not transactional purchases.
Nothing in ATEX’s disclosure suggests interest has gone away — only that negotiations are ongoing.
Even one signed deal would immediately reset market expectations.
3. Historical Transactions: ATEX Has Sold Spectrum at Prices Well Above $1/MHz-POP
This is factual and disclosed: ATEX’s previous transactions in several regions priced well above $1/MHz-POP.
Using “>$1” is conservative.
Today?
The stock implies:
👉 ~$0.15/MHz-POP
(depending on how one allocates EV minus financial assets)
That’s an 85%+ discount to ATEX’s own historical pricing.
4. External Comparable: Grain Management Paying ~ $0.88/POP for 800 MHz Spectrum
This is not speculation.
In FCC filings, Grain Management is attempting to acquire certain T-Mobile 800 MHz spectrum licenses at roughly $0.88 per POP.
A few important notes for accuracy:
It is a different band, so not identical
But it is low-band spectrum, used for coverage
Grain is a professional, return-driven buyer
Grain is willing to pay $0.88/POP because they believe there is still upside
When a sophisticated institutional investor is paying near a dollar per POP and still expects returns…
…and ATEX trades around $0.15/POP…
…the valuation gap becomes difficult to rationalize.
5. Management Has Previously Estimated the Full Portfolio at ~$3 Billion
ATEX has stated in past disclosures that their full nationwide spectrum footprint, under long-term adoption scenarios, could support valuation potential around $3B.
That number should be framed properly:
it is management’s estimate
it reflects long-term utilization across the full footprint
it is not a confirmed appraisal
That said, even if one applied a 50% haircut for caution, the implied value would still be:
👉 ~$1.5B, far above today’s < $100M implied valuation.
The order-of-magnitude gap remains intact even using conservative assumptions.
6. Strategic Logic: AT&T Is a Natural Fit
This is supported by third-party research.
Analyst commentary (including Oppenheimer’s note on related low-band holdings like Anterix spectrum) has highlighted that AT&T’s FirstNet, its nationwide first-responder network, could logically benefit from additional low-band allocations.
While nothing implies AT&T is currently negotiating with ATEX, the fit is straightforward:
low-band propagation
coverage + indoor penetration
mission-critical public-safety applications
rural extension and hardening of FirstNet
This creates a credible strategic backdrop for eventual carrier or infrastructure-operator interest.
7. Regulatory Tailwinds Are Strengthening, Not Weakening
The FCC has been increasingly vocal about:
terrestrial PNT (GPS backup)
critical-infrastructure communications
modernizing utility networks
improved rural and indoor coverage
resilient public-safety connectivity
ATEX’s band sits at the intersection of these themes.
Policy cycles like this tend to increase long-term spectrum value, not decrease it.
Final Take
ATEX combines:
a balance sheet covering most of the market cap
contracted future payments
demonstrated utility demand (~$500M of allocated spectrum)
historical sales at many multiples of today’s implied valuation
external PE comps showing much higher pricing
a nationwide footprint with long-term strategic relevance
and a stock that still prices the spectrum at distressed levels
There is no guarantee on timing — utility deployments and spectrum deals always move slowly.
But the valuation discrepancy is unusually large, and the reference points supporting higher pricing are grounded in actual transactions, not projections.
The setup remains compelling.
Rob’s Educated Guesses