Disingenuous Disinflation: The Fed Survival Guide
+ $META Long Thesis
Disingenuous Disinflation: The Fed Survival Guide
I sit here and wonder what has changed since the market lows. Seriously. In December, we were heading for a recession of unknown proportions engineered by a hawkish Fed. In turn, this was to be matched with an earnings recession qualified as negative growth in 2023. And this would drive further multiple compression to take the market to trough P/E’s on trough EPS somewhere in the 3,200 S&P 500 level. Yet, on January 6th, you can see very clearly in the QQQ 0.00%↑ chart below that the “trend” changed.
If this chart doesn’t make you ask us what’s next, then nothing will!