It's a Mess Out There

Unless....

Sometimes I wish my style was more akin to CTA momentum with mechanical stops when stuff “stops working”. In general, they find a signal and ride it until it hurts them a certain amount or a pattern develops that that suggests a trend change. Gosh, long the megacaps and short the IWM has worked for so long that the QQQ versus IWM is at all time wides (and getting wider almost at an accelerating rate).

Remember the scene from Goodfellas? Henry Hill describing the sympathizing by the Mob Bosses: “Oh you had a fire? Fuck you, pay me. Place got hit by lightening huh? Fuck you pay me.”

The banks are in trouble? Fuck you, buy mega-caps! Europe is having some political revolts favoring unsteady right and left wing groups? Fuck you, buy mega-caps! Rates are going down is supposed to help the RUT (IWM)? Fuck you, buy mega-caps! The economy seems to be slowing? Fuck you, buy mega-caps! The Fed is penciling in 1-2 cuts in 2024 and 4 in 2025? Fuck you, buy mega-caps!