It's NOW or NEVER

CRWD, NVDA, AMZN, PANW and more.....

Sound a bit harsh? The market has consolidated the breath-taking fourth quarter rally with a bigger pullback in the IWM and the QQQ and SPY back to flat in 2024. The number of sell-side price target raises and naming of their 2024 favorite stocks lists without any real updates or changes to fundamentals has set the stage for a fireworks earnings season. A crowd favorite, Crowdstrike, is now trading at 75x EPS and 17x sales heading into their next EPS report with the guidance for ARR not really changing. The whispers on the Street are they “sound good”. Don’t get me wrong, last quarter was “great” with net new ARR of $233m up 13% year-over-year, in-line with consensus (at the time deemed a relief). The guidance was also in-line to slightly better. The stock rallied 40% in the past few months. We like the CRWD story, stacking chips (net new ARR) and expanding margins, but at this price? What does the company need to report to keep buyers buying and sellers from deciding the risk-reward is no longer in your favor? All good questions, right?