NVDA is set to report earnings this evening with consensus estimates a bit stale as the company disclosed the ban on China GPUs but did not quantify its impact by quarter. For reference, total China sales are approximately $5.5b per quarter but it is less clear how much of that is GPU versus retail cards and gaming. Some analysts have some absurd thoughts such as BofA, thinking it is a $7 billion headwind to the July quarter. Realistically, the true impact is likely in the $3 billion area as a headwind for July versus April results. It will not be EASY to get Collette to parse this for us, even on the conference call, but rest assured she loves to solve for up!
First my matrix on what would be a range of outcomes:
So, Nvidia has been growing total revenues about $4 billion per qtr for quite awhile: