The META setup

This is the narrative setup into the print post SNAP saying April was soft and not giving guidance for 2Q:

META investors are bullish on AI ROI + execution, but anxious about ~5-10% exposure to China retailers with PDD Temu type spend falling off a cliff in recent weeks. Investors expect 1Q revs around the top-end of guide (~$41.8B or ~14.5-15% growth) with greater debate around 2Q guide -- seems like ~10% high end would be a push at this point and ~12%+ a relief, so ~$43B-44B top end a good outcome. Expect a reiteration of both FY25 capex guide ($60-65B) and opex guide ($114-119B), though any tweak would likely be lower opex given the macro environment.

The above is the sellside snapshot. What is fascinating to me is the basic math on the 1Q for META. Let’s discuss.