The November Jobs Surprise

12/2 fireworks ahead!

The November Jobs Surprise

12/2 fireworks ahead!

Remember our prediction for a hot jobs number in October?  It was 11/3/2022 and the $QQQ was at its 52 week low of 260.49.  The market expectation was 193,000 new jobs for October and they came in hot at 261,000.  However, the market decided that day to focus on a much lesser publicized metric, the household survey from the BLS:

Second is the Household Survey that tallies the unemployment rate. This survey asks individuals whether or not they have a job. That survey reported a 328,000 job decline in October. 

For sure, the economy didn’t add 261,000 jobs but also shed 328,000 in the same month.  That’s just not logical!  But, the market was in the mood to find a silver lining to a hot economy that the Fed would keep squashing with a higher and higher terminal rate.  Since then we finally got a softer CPI for October which caused a massive rally catching most participants offsides.  Did inflation really slow dramatically in October?  Probably not.  But the government choose to reset their medical expense calculations which showed a marked decline in October versus its typical rise each and every month.  Starting to get the sense the market is more about participant positioning and very basic narratives more than anything else?  Yep.  Look no further than Mike Wilson at Morgan Stanley who has predicted this tactical seasonal rally to 4100+ on the S&P500 only to predict that we crater in 2023 to low 3000s.

Well, we have a prediction for the November jobs report that could lead to massive fireworks in December for the markets.  Wait for it………